Over You

Hillary won Pennsylvania. Yawn.

She still is behind in delegates and popular vote and her noxious attacks on Obama will spell doom for her candidacy if she does end up usurping the will of the voters and getting the nomination. In fact, I’d say if she gets the nom against the popular vote by somehow convincing superdelegates to vote for her, the Dems lose the race for the White House. Obama voters will not vote for her. I’m not entirely sure I’d vote for her.

Besides, she’s in debt to the tune of ten million. She may get a bump of around 2-5 million by winning in Penn, but its peanuts compared to the 40 million in Barack’s back pocket. He outspent her in Penn knowing she would have to spend money to match and knowing he probably wouldn’t win. The strategy is to outspend her into the red. And that’s where she is.

The predictions say Obama wins North Carolina by enough to basically negate the delegates she will have picked up in Penn. Essentially, it will be a wash and then Indiana and Oregon are in play.

The question remains, how much money is Clinton going to receive by winning in Penn? My guess is enough to get her out of debt, but all that does is keep her from seeing red ink. It also means she has little to run on in NC and IN. If Obama wins NC (very likely), then he can shore up Oregon and Indiana.

OR is definitely a potential deal breaker for Clinton. If Obama wins NC, IN and OR it will finally be over for Clinton. If he wins NC, stays close in IN and wins OR, it will probably be over. In any event, if it goes to the convention I don’t see superdelegates overthrowing the will of the people and Obama is mathematically going to be ahead.

At this point, Hillary’s only hope to get to the nomination is a monumental Obama collapse, and his merely losing primaries or bowling a 37 is not enough — he needs to do something akin to getting caught with a dead prostitute. Somehow, I don’t think its going to happen.

I’m eager to hear his stump speech in the next two weeks. He needs to find a renewed sense of purpose and bring the rhetoric back to its soaring heights. I believe he will do just that. Clinton’s plan is just short of scorched earth continuing to throw the everything and the kitchen sink at him. I hope Obama can simply rise above it and ride out the math and then gather the superdelegates to put him over the top.

Meanwhile, McCain still doesn’t know the difference between Sunni and Shia.