A Prediction

Mark Frauenfelder at Boing Boing presents a prediction by Fred Wilson found in his email newsletter, A VC. Wilson is a venture capitalist who invested in Twitter, Tumblr, Foursquare, Zynga, and Kickstarter. Frauenfelder quotes Wilson’s prediction from one of his recent issues:

I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President.

The House will react to Mueller’s report by voting to impeach the President. Which will set up a trial in the Senate. That trial will go so badly for the President that he will, like Nixon before him, negotiate a resignation that will lead to him and those close to him being pardoned for all actions, and Mike Pence will become the President of the United States sometime in 2019.

I believe this drama will play out through most of 2019. I expect the Mueller report to be issued sometime in the late winter/early spring and I expect an impeachment vote by the House before the summer, leading to a trial in the Senate in the second half of the year.

The drama in Washington will have serious impacts to the economy in the United States starting with our capital markets.

Wilson predicted an interesting end game for the Trump Administration. Personally, I don’t think it’s very likely. First off, I don’t think the State crimes that I fear will be uncovered in the Mueller investigations are going to be negotiated away. Secondly, the belief that Mike Pence has not been privy to these crimes seems incredibly far-fetched. There’s just no way he’s clean as a whistle in any of this. Can you imagine a scenario where both Trump and Pence are arrested and indicted on Federal crimes and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi assumes the Presidency? It would be political chaos

Lastly and most importantly, Wilson predicts a Senate impeachment trial that will go badly for Trump. There is no evidence that it would. Until there are real cracks in the support of Trump by the Republican base, and I doubt we will see them, then an impeachment trial would be no more effective against Trump than it was against Bill Clinton in the 90s for potentially less criminal activity.

The only way Trump is removed from office is by voting. Democrats need to nominate a more charismatic, dynamic, and entertaining candidate than Trump. As of right now, I’m not sure who that is? Beto O’Roarke?

January 3, 2019


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